UNDERSTANDING THE MODEL

What MP, LEAN and PASS mean.

Understand the difference between a predicted winner, a qualifying selection and betting value.

MP · MODEL PICK

Qualifies as a model selection

Meets the current model’s qualifying criteria for that sport and market. Check the probability, line, price and supporting evidence before deciding. MP is a research classification, not a guarantee or proof of positive expected value.

LEAN · WATCHLIST

Worth reviewing, below the MP cutoff

Some indicators are favorable, but the selection does not meet the full Model Pick criteria. A LEAN is not an official Model Pick.

PASS · RESEARCH ONLY

No model recommendation

The selection does not qualify, may lack reliable inputs, or has too much uncertainty. A PASS does not mean the selection cannot win or that its opponent is certain to win.

Predicted winner versus best bet

The predicted winner is the participant with the higher available model win estimate. A qualifying bet also depends on the market, price and applicable model criteria. The model can favor a winner while passing on a wager.

Probability and uncertainty

A percentage is an estimate, not a promised result. A close game can go either way. Missing, stale or unresolved evidence should be reviewed rather than interpreted as a zero chance of winning.

UFC fight scenarios

An exploratory method or round describes a possible path supported by verified historical outcomes. It is separate from the winner probability and is not a calibrated probability of that exact finish. If the evidence is unclear, the scenario remains uncertain.

Models and qualifying criteria are versioned and can vary by sport and market. Research labels are not personal financial advice. Verify current sportsbook selections and prices; no outcome is guaranteed.